RolStoppable said:
After adjustments, VGC has Switch at ~22m YTD by November 28th with four or five weeks left to go. Could be five because there are 33 days left in the year, but I am not 100% sure how VGC will handle it. The four weeks in December 2019 amounted to ~5m units sold and there are no indicators that Switch stock this year will be notably lower than last year's. Tack on 5m to the current 22m and you get 27m. If VGC adds a fifth week this year, covering December 27th to January 2nd, that's going to add another ~0.5m to the yearly total. |
Looking at the hardware by date graphs VGC counts weeks by the Saturday they end on, so the last "December" week this year will be ending 26th.
This is a roughly roughly equivalent date range to last year which as you say VGC also counts as a 4-week December:
2019 December = 4-weeks ending 28th
2020 December = 4-weeks ending 26th
Stock issues aside if demand was the same it would still sell slightly more than last year due to the 4-week period ending 2-days earlier (thus taking out the lower selling days of 27th/28th) so anything below 27m for the year is extremely pessimistic.
