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haxxiy on 13 December 2020
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curl-6 said:

Since our COVID-19 numbers are very low (today is day 44 of zero cases in my state) the Aus government has said they won't be moving up their vaccine timeline in response to other countries, and still plan to start vaccinations in March.

I am pretty keen to get my shot but I understand that we don't have the same pressing need for it that countries like the UK or the US do so I'm not too fussed. I do worry though that it will escape from hotel quarantine again in the meantime and cause a third wave.

I wonder whether being an asthmatic puts me the category of people with pre-existing conditions to be vaccinated sooner, or if as a 31 year old I'll be at the back of the queue.

I assume every country will have slightly differing strategies depending on what their CDC equivalent recommends but yeah, you're probably bottom of the list too, although before other young people with no pre-existing conditions. I'm thinking late 2021 or early to mid 2022 depending on how quickly ramp up is going to be.

Since even with an effectiveness of 95% older people will still be dying more than unvaccinated younger people, and perhaps dying enough to overwhelm hospitals in older countries, I don't see the social aspect of the pandemic (distancing etc.) disappearing in the next 12 - 18 months, so I think a quick ramp-up, if not necessarily likely, is in everyone's interest.

Now all of that is assuming the vaccine provides some sort of mid to long term protective immunity like natural infection presumably does. If it doesn't, the logistics become incredibly more complicated, since almost everyone will need to be vaccinated in a relatively short timespan for outbreaks to effectively disappear, which could take longer still even in the best case scenario.