Mario kart was at 29 million at the end of September. It already definitely passed 30 million by now. It seems likely it will end somewhere between 40 and 50 million by the end of the switchs life.
I cant see spiderman selling millions more on ps4 when it's already got a remaster on a new console. Also any source for that last of us ps3 number, because this is the first I've heard of it selling over 10 million on ps3.
I agree that it's doubtful that those games will reach 30 million. Although I'm not sure why you think they can't and spiderman can?
I'm not sure if you can call anyone unrealistic when you think that spiderman will sell another 10 million on a replaced console and has already been remastered on the new console. Spiderman ps4 is done I doubt it'll sell another 1 million on the console. I don't think AC or MK will manage 50 million on switch but there's more of a chance of that happening then spiderman hitting 30 million on ps4.
In my opinion Sony hasn't quite hit Nintendo levels of sales with software yet. But they might be able to do it this gen. They've improved software sales massively over the last decade, so it's definitely possible to hit that level at some point and maybe even surpass it. Once they have a game that can hit MK levels of sales, they will be on a similar level.
The source is another ZHuge tweet. It might not have been over 10 Million on the PS3, but the total figure for the TLOU was 20 Million lifetime, with both the PS3 and PS4.
30+ Million is a high end number, I originally quoted 25 - 30 Million, 25+ Million is where I think SM will most likely finish at. The PS5 remaster won't eat into the PS4 version since both are treated as separate games. Like I said, PS4 software won't completely stop selling in 2021, the leaked Spiderman figure was likely reached before this holiday season, it will be on sale with all the DLC included, its a massively popular franchise that translates well to video games, and has 2 more holiday seasons left to sell. Another example is GT6, which launched after the PS4, and still managed 5+ Million sales on the PS3, whereas the PS4 should have a healthier userbase, with SM being an evergreen title itself.
I do agree Sony isn't on Nintendo's level yet but I do think they're approaching it.