It's like I said in another thread, Nintendo doesn't have an incentive to have a huge holiday in Japan. Still they will do very well due to New Horizon, Ring Fit and Momotaro - just not at the same level as last year when they had Pokemon Sword / Shield and a recently launched Lite model. I believe they would ship around 2.25 million hardware for the quarter, so a little over 1.35 million in the next 5 weeks(counting Week 1, 2021 as the last shipment).
I continue to believe that we would see record breaking numbers in other places which Nintendo prioritized liked North America, Europe, East Asia - this is mainly because Japan is a lock for Nintendo and they will have a lot of momentum in 2021, where I expect them to outperform 2020 for the first two quarters due to a far greater number of games. Considering their Software sales this year I don't really think they would mind if they end up with a little over 6 million units in 2020, that's still much better than 3DS ever did. The other thing I still strongly believe is that 2021 > 2020 in terms of hardware sales.
The main idea behind this is to show strength in other markets where the PS5/XSX are more relevant compared to Japan.
Top Publishers 2020
- Nintendo - 11.950.457 (62.75%)
- Square Enix - 1.313.257 (6.9%)
- Pokemon Co - 1.192.334 (6.3%)
- Bandai Namco - 918.285 (4.8%)
- Konami - 900.693 (4.7%)
- Sony - 760.182 (4%)
- Sega - 460.877 (2.4%)
- Microsoft - 432.651 (2.3%)
- Koei Tecmo - 370.654 (1.9%)
- Capcom - 321.998 (1.7%)
- Atlus - 215.551 (1.1%)
Top 50 by System:
- Switch - 15.366.415 (80.68%)
- PlayStation 4 - 3.677.758 (19.31%)
- Nintendo has more than doubled their Software sales compared to last year;
- Square Enix will be down more than 500K YoY
- Pokemon Co will be down more than 1.5 million YoY
- Bandai down at least 750K YoY
- Konami up over 500K YoY
- Sony, Sega, Microsoft, Koei, will be just about flat
- Capcom down over 800K YoY
Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2020 Top 15:
- Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami)- 472.426
- Minecraft (Microsoft) - 432.651
- eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 248.024
- Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 213.882
- Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 171.631
- Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 138.550
- One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954
- Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 101.707
- Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451
- Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 82.137
- Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 78.558
- Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 65.653
- Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 62.949
- Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne (Atlus) - 59.549
- Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Remastered Edition (Square Enix) - 56.187
TOTAL: 2.402.309
Top Publishers Switch 2020
- Konami - 720.450
- Microsoft - 432.651
- Bandai Namco - 391.292
- Square Enix - 238.775
- Sega - 217.108
- Koei Tecmo - 213.882
- Atlus - 125.202
- Imagineer - 62.949
- In just two weeks Konami became the Top 3rd Party publisher this year on the Switch
- GameAddict, Koei Tecmo, Imagineer all have games launching next week DerbyStallion, Atelier 2 and Fitness Boxing 2
- Bandai's Taiko 3DS port started with15K sales, Drum 'n' Fun! launched with 66K sales, they have another family game launching in December
- Square's Dragon Quest XI S will become their best selling game of the year on the Switch due to lower priced version launching
