curl-6 said:
Very interested to see what the all time third party top sellers list looks like by the end of the year. Isn't Age of Calamity a Nintendo published game though, even if it's third party developed? |
My prediction for the LTD physical EOY:
- Minecraft - >1.75M
- Momotaro - >800K
- Fishing Spirits, DQXI S, Taiko - >600K
- Age of Calamity - >450K
- MHGU, YW4, M+S Olympics, eBaseball 2020 - >400K
- DQB2 >350K
- Bomberman R, Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball >250K
- Fitness Boxing, Human Fall Flat, Derby Stallion, Octopath, Xenoverse 2, Sakuna, Story of Seasons >200K
Top 20 >8.25M
- Microsoft >1.75M
- Konami >1.7M
- Bandai Namco >1.5M
- Square Enix >1.15M
- Koei Tecmo >450K
- Capcom, Sega, Level 5, Marvelous & Imagineer >400K
PS4 TOP 20 LTD:
- Monster Hunter: World (Capcom) - 2.564.928
- Dragon Quest XI (Square Enix) - 1.368.698
- Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) - 1.042.951
- Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 932.821
- Kingdom Hearts III (Square Enix) - 861.226
- Grand Theft Auto V (Take-Two) - 708.610
- Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne (Capcom) - 557.153
- NieR: Automata (Square Enix) - 467.485
- Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain (Konami) - 448.554
- Resident Evil 2 (Capcom) - 418.236
- Dark Souls III (From Software) - 413.021
- Persona 5 (Atlus) - 405.455
- Yakuza 6: The Song of Life (Sega) - 367.965
- Resident Evil 7: biohazard (Capcom) - 365.896
- Rainbow Six: Siege (Ubisoft) - 348.882
- Dragon Quest Heroes (Square Enix) - 329.934
- Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX (Square Enix) - 293.248
- Judgement (Sega) - 284.001
- Dragon Quest Heroes II (Square Enix) - 280.542
- Battlefield 1 (EA) - 275.924
TOTAL: 12.735.530
Top Publishers:
- Square Enix - 5.576.905
- Capcom - 2.547.1060
- Take-Two - 708.610
- Sega - 651.966
- Konami - 448.554
The biggest winners as far as moving towards the Switch by the end of the year will be Microsoft, Konami, Bandai from the big publishers. That will continue into next year since it's very clear where the priorities for all three companies are on the Japanese market, Bandai can see expansion easily by providing a wider amount of support and stop with the late ports they've been doing in the past. Konami is in a similar situation with their Football game potentially hitting the system next year. I think the two companies will have plenty of AA games set to launch on the Switch in 2021.
Koei, Marvelous & Capcom, will be breaking onto the system with Age of Calamity, Monster Hunter Rise, BOND, Atelier 2, Monster Hunter Stories 2, Dynasty Warriors, Oliver Town, Sakuna, Rune Factory 5 etc they would be making substantial gains in the coming quarters. Capcom in particular will become the Top Selling 3rd Party on the system within a very short period of time.
Marvelous will be the smaller publisher which will make the biggest gains on the Switch. I expect Marvelous to surpass 2 million software by EOY 2021. On the PS3/PS4/PSV/3DS combined Marvelous didn't manage anywhere near this. They are set for some monster growth compared to their sales just a few years ago, and I expect their Asia and Western sales to actually make them a pretty substantial player on the Japanese market. Overall Tencent's investment into them was clearly based on this growth potential.
While Age of Calamity will be easily Koei's biggest game in Japan since the PS2 days. I expect it to have unusually long legs for a Warriors game due to Breath of the Wild 2 and ongoing support. AoC, Atelier 2, BOND and Dynasty Warriors 9 are signs of strong alignment to Nintendo.
Finally we have all types of indies that have already been seeing a huge uptick with their sales in Japan and elsewhere. Human Fall Flat, Fitness Boxing surpassing 200K in Japan physically is a sign of this.
Square, Sega, Level-5 & AAA Western 3rd Parties are probably the biggest losers on the Japanese market due to their inability to adapt their pipelines to the Switch. For Square - Bravely Default 2 is honestly not enough they should have at least two more games that can break the 500K on the Switch next year. Sega and Level-5 need to start to release more exclusive AA on the system in the search of a new hit franchise.
| noshten said: Just a reminder that Playstation 3 launched on November 11th, 2006, it had pricing similar to what we expect from Playstation 5. Which were ¥49,980 / ¥59,980 depending on the SKU. Launching with 88K sales, by the end of 2006 PS3 managed 466K sales in Japan. I honestly don't think Sony needs to ship more than 500K in Japan for 2020 and the first week of 2021. If the pricing is closer to ¥60,000 than they probably don't even need to ship 400K to Japan. So overall the vast majority of what they are going to manufacture will end up elsewhere. At this point I'm wondering if PS4 and PS5 combined will be able to sell 1M this year in Japan... |
It was easy to see what will happen with the PS5 in its launch period and the holidays
It's also easy to expect that franchises that remain exclusive there will continue to decline. Next year will be really slow for PS5 hardware and software. PS3 managed 1.2M hardware and 2.66M software in 2007.
For the PS5 I think the result will be under 800K hardware and software well below 1.5M in 2021, a lot of Japanese pubs to continue with cross gen PS4/PS5 games but with the added factor of 75% of those games also being multiplatform with the Switch. In the past the Playstation ecosystem has far more exclusives across it's portable and home consoles, but times are changing since the transition of the game makers who were focused on AA games have all pretty much transitioned to the Switch.
Next year is going to be crazy in terms of announcements, and those 25% of games exclusive to the Playstation in Japan will be a point of contention as I don't believe the money Sony will be paying will be enough to offset losses in cases where a big game fails like Marvel's Avengers did this year.
