|mk7sx said: |
I think AC/MK8D should be in their own tier. Those will leg up to 55-60M at this pace.
ACNH will do 5-7M in the holiday quarter this year and be sitting at 31-33M.
That's ~54.5M with an aggressive 76% drop in 2021 off of only a 9 month first year. What if Lite gets a bundle this year or next year @$200 or even cheaper (150? 170?). Could stay over 10M next year and then it legs past 60M.
MK8D same story. Expecting 4-5M in this year's holiday quarter has it sitting at 33-34M by end of 2020 (that's 10.5-11M, peak year in year 4 lol, and this current quarter was just the largest non-holiday/launch quarter it ever had - last quarter was second largest).
2021 - 9.0M
2022 - 6.5M
2023 - 5.0M
2024 - 3.0M
LTD - 4.0M
That's 60M. I guess if they launch MK9 sometime in 2022-2024 it might dent these numbers, but we're still looking at 50-55M.
BOTW and SSBU expecting mid-to-high 30M range. BOTW has now slightly beat out SSBU for the past 2 quarters, which I did not expect, especially given SSBU's strong extended DLC support. I imagine this trend continues and it pulls back ahead in a year or so. Expecting 35-40M range for BOTW and ~35M for Smash. These are the top heavyweights, with SMO/Pokemon rounding out this category.
Maybe Mario 3D World and BOTW2 join this category (at this point, I'm doubtful that BOTW2 doesn't cross 20M - it will have a mega opening that'll make it hard to miss the 20M mark I think. Anything beyond that depends on WOM and further NSW hardware legs.
I agree that MK8DX will cross 50 mil and AC has a very good shot at it as well, but I don't really see a reason to give them their own tier though. Its interesting to compare them to the others.
Unless the disparity squashes the chart too much and makes it hard to read, I agree that it's better to keep them all on one chart. But if it gets too unreadable for the "smaller" games (as in, under 20M sales. And geez, calling something selling 12-20M a smaller title...), better put the top 2 in a separate chart. Best would be of course if there's another title(s) to join them at the top, but Nintendo already catched a lightning a bottle twice in a row on the Switch, managing to do that a third time would be absolutely crazy.
But here's the thing: There are probably more titles coming out that will sell 12M+. BotW2 is already a serious contender, and any upcoming Pokemon game that isn't Snap should also get into there. So if that chart gets too crowded, then maybe it will be necessary to split it into one 15-25M and one 25M+ chart.
Yea it's true that the charts could eventually get too crowded, and if that happens I will split it up further. Currently the middleweights chart is the one I'm most worried about though, but I suppose if I make 3 tiers it would probably make sense to move Super Mario Party up to the second one and maybe Ring Fit if it keeps up its momentum.