| shikamaru317 said: The more I read up on that war, the worse it makes Turkey and Azerbaijan seem. I already thought Erdogan was a piece of crap for his persecution of the Kurds, he just continues to get worse and worse. |
That's the thing IMHO, it's not just Azerbaijan pushing this war, they were one consistently violating ceasefire before, but never this big.
This war is 100% being pushed by Turkey, and by what I read, Turkish generals are running it, pushing out Azeri generals they don't like.
Reprising the short lived 1918-20 phase of "Azerbaijan", established by backing of Turkish armies, and leading to massacres in Artsakh.
I would not ascribe too much to Erdogan alone, this is common thread of Turkish nationalism, even if Erdogan plays as loose cannon.
But as you mention Kurds, the KDP of northern Iraq is longer running example of US facilitating Turkish "neo-Ottoman" aspirations.
From US "NFZ" era onward, northern Iraq was removed from Iraqi jurisdiction, leaving Turkey in position to cultivate influence there.
KDP now essentially a client of Turkey who facilitates them undermining and ignoring Iraqi state even after Saddam deposed by US.
But KDP also accomodates Turkish military bases in northern Iraq that are used to prosecute war against PKK forces in the area.
All done alongside US/NATO, just as "sectarian" war VS Syria, Turkish controlled Idlib now ready for annexation to Ottoman realms.
IMHO Armenia's efforts to suck up to US and Israel were a waste, they were never going to side with Armenia vs Turkey/Azerbaijan,
Turkey is too useful as regional "attack dog" such as against Syria. If nothing changed after the incident with Azeri officer taking an axe
to murder Armenian officer at NATO training event (Azeri officer returning home to hero's welcome), then obviously material interests
outweigh any squeamishness over genocidal bloodlust. Genocidaires aren't real problem for US/NATO, just something to cry about AFTER,
from Saddam's chemicals VS Iran/Kurds, to Kosovo's Thaci (once terrorist, then freedom fighter-democrat, now indicted for war crimes).
(incidentally I see Turkish nationalists proudly cite Saddam Hussein as role model to follow, of course aspiring for more success than him)
So expecting US to be strong ally that would stop and defeat a genocidal war committed by Turkey is not luxury Armenians can afford.
I think right now it's all on Armenians to win the fight in their mountains as they did in the first war in 90's.
Russia will be the one who backs up Armenia to stop Turkey/Azeris from attacking Armenia "proper" or critically assaulting core Artsakh.
Azeris have made plenty of attacks against Armenia "proper" to trigger Russian defence treaty, so I guess it is matter of time & place.
If France is seriously opposed to Turkey they may decide that has priority over "traditional" NATO strategy of "what is bad for Russia?".
But France and US or rest of NATO are just not as relevant to the war, being physically removed from the entire region of Armenia.
Recognition of Artsakh independence should be "in the cards" after war, actually having reasonable basis in Soviet law for Autonomous areas,
and would be consistent with Russia's own support & recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia which were Autonomous areas of Georgia.
(before modern "hate Russia" days, US and EU countries even backed Russian peacekeepers to stop "Georgia for Georgians" massacres)
