Q: Revision to guidance take into account 1H
— David Gibson (@gibbogame) November 5, 2020
A: very favorable 1H has been taken into consideration for the guidance revision, 2H has not been really revised
Initial forecast of 19.0M was revised to 24.0M by accounting for over-performance of first half. So...
Old Forecast:
Q1/Q2: 7.50M
Q3/Q4: 11.50M
Total: 19.0M
New Forecast:
Q1/Q2: 12.5M (Actual)
Q3/Q4: 11.5M (Unchanged from Forecast above)
Total: 24.0M
LOL. They will blow that number in Q3 alone.
They have now shipped 26,620,000 units in the last 4 consecutive quarters (ahead of any rolling 4-quarter for the Wii), and we had rumors of production increases both Q1 and Q2 that would not realistically bear fruit until Q3. They should be able to out-ship last year's Q3 10,810,000 easily. 13-14M should be on the table, if not more. Jan-Mar quarter will be huge as well on the back of holiday momentum + better software slate than ever before (two heavy hitters with a sprinkling of 3P titles). 30M is the obvious real target for the FY.
Also - notable that R&D spending has hit historical highs (I'm trying to dig to confirm this) for three consecutive quarters in a row. We'll see what's cooking for next year.
