Famitsu Sales: Week 42, 2020 (Oct 12 - Oct 18)

[The_Liquid_Laser]

noshten said:

Should be interesting how much hardware New Horizon, Ring Fit Adventure, other evergreens, and 3rd Parties can push this holiday period. 

3DS Week 43 2012 to Week 1 2013 was the Peak holiday for the 3DS with 2.293.826. Now personally I would be surprised if Switch manages this type of sales this holiday. But it will get close even without a major release. New Leaf launched Week 45 2012, which really impacted the sales of the 3DS and allowed some of the best weeks since the DS to be achieved. During Week 52 the system achieved over 433K sales... I think Switch demand is still not met but at the same time even with a major upgrade to Animal Crossing and a bundle, I've been burned a few too many times with hardware supplies to be 100 optimistic. 

Obviously, if Nintendo starts to consistently sell 150K during November that would signal that there is potential for them to reach some absurd numbers considering the price of the Switch is substantially higher than 3DS. New Leaf sold 2.4M by Week 1, 2013, combined I believe Ring Fit and New Horizon will sell more than the holiday period regardless of the conservative or optimistic scenarios. 

In the optimistic scenario software totals would be considerably higher as well, with Mototaro being close to 1M by Week 1 and Age of Calamity being closer to 750K. 

Switch Conservative Prediction: 

• Week 43: >80K
• Week 44: >120K (Pikmin + SMT III)
• Week 45: >100K
• Week 46: >100K
• Week 47: >100K
• Week 48: >200K (Momotaro + Age of Calamity)
• Week 49: >150K
• Week 50: >200K
• Week 51: >350K
• Week 52: >250K
• Week 1 2013: >300K

HOLIDAY TOTAL >1.95M

Switch Optimistic prediction:

• Week 43: >100K
• Week 44: >150K (Pikmin + SMT III)
• Week 45: >150K
• Week 46: >150K
• Week 47: >150K
• Week 48: >250K (Momotaro + Age of Calamity)
• Week 49: >200K
• Week 50: >250K
• Week 51: >400K
• Week 52: >300K
• Week 1 2013: >350K

HOLIDAY TOTAL >2.45M

I'm a lot more optimistic than your optimistic prediction, but it's mostly based on Nintendo shipping a lot more Switches to Japan.  I think whatever Nintendo ships, that is what they will sell.  Basically, I think there is so much backed up demand that Nintendo needs to still ship a lot more to Japan.  If they ship enough, then they can go far beyond 2.5m for the remaining weeks.