Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

[freedquaker]

Dear Friends,

It has been a while since I made a sales or market share estimate but with the advent of the new generation, I think it is time. My estimates have been mostly accurate. I had stated that the following in a nutshell.

1) Xbox One will sell less than half of ps5 worldwide and will lose even in the US and the UK way back in 2013 and 2014.
2) Xbox One X will not be a big seller or much of a help to boost the XB1 sales
3) PS4 will sell more than PS3 and PS1, and possibly PS2.
4) I estimated PS4 to sell a minimum of 122 million by the end of 2020, which is a slight over estimation by about 5-10%. But other than that, my estimates were pretty much all spot on.

For more info, please refer to the reference links below.

8th Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates
Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles and Analysis of the Market
PS4 Lifetime Sales Estimates
XB1 Lifetime Sales Estimates
Xbox One X (Scorpio) Prospects


In this (9th) generation, I do NOT have a clear estimate for SALES amount, as it may dwindle or get a boost, depending on numerous factors, which are not yet clear to me. However, I do have a pretty clear idea about the MARKET SHARE, with only two console competitors aside from the handheld king Nintendo. I will base these estimates on two simple assumptions.

1) Market Shares will be SIMILAR enough to the 8th generation. So whoever is stronger in a particular region will also be relatively stronger in that region and sell similarly.

2) Xbox will definitely sell better this generation by a certain SWING rate, namely the percentage increase in the Xbox Market Share in each region due to a relatively better Xbox image and consumers SWINGING from Playstation to Xbox camp.

3) The Raw Swing Rate will vary between 0.30 and 0.50 (estimated) and is a function of the current market share in each region. For example, assuming a 0.5 swing rate in the US with a market share of 46% for Xbox, this means a 23% (0.5x0.46%) increase in RELATIVE market sales and the market share increasing to 51.2% (mathematically => 46*1.23 / (54 + 46*1.23) = 0.512) and making the Xbox the market leader in the US.

4) I have based my analysis on VGChartz Data;

a) First As of End of 2018 broken down to Regions (latest available data by region)
b) Then extrapolated to September 2020 (latest available data globally)

In order to find out the regional breakdown and market shares, on which I base my analysis.


Analysis

1) PS4 vs XB1 Analysis

2) PS5 vs XBS Analysis

If the pictures do not show up, please click on the titles above. In a nutshell, my estimates show that 

1) The Xbox market share will improve pretty much in all regions, except maybe Japan from the current 31% to 33-34%, basically the one-to-two ratio.

2) The Swing factor, estimated to range from 30-50%, does not make much of a difference globally (33% vs 34%).

3) The US Xbox market share will increase from 46-47% to 49-52%, possibly gaining a slight market lead.

4) Xbox is not likely to gain the market lead anywhere else. Even in the UK, the market share is not likely to pass 48% (up from 43%).

5) In Summary, the 9th generation will be a close repeat of the 8th generation in terms of market share, albeit with somewhat improved results for Xbox, and a possible market lead in the US (and possibly Canada).

Update (1)

First, I have not taken the Bethesda Acquisition into account, but it does not change the picture much as I have already introduced a "Swing Factor Window", which is between 30-50% currently. If need be, I can change this window in the future. Additionally, the swing factor is a linear function of the 8th gen. market share, which I can modify to be non-linear if necessary, so we'll see.

Second, I have not taken the small form factor Series S into account either; although the preorders show inclination towards it, being a rather bad deal, especially compared to the PS5 digital (smaller and slower SSD, less and slower RAM, much less GPU grunt etc.), regions like Japan sensitive to size may have an uncanny reaction towards it. This is a wild card I am keeping an eye on.

Edit: Post edited to fix images for the Op. You are welcome. - Pemalite.

~ A belated "Thank you".

Update (2)
Obviously I under-estimated the Xbox Series "S" and did not foresee the Covid Effect, which DOES change the outcomes, in favor of the Xbox. I have not gone into full scale analysis since I lack the regional hardware data for each console, but I will still entertain a simple educated guess on this. Based on my previous analysis, I can say that...

a) Xbox sales improvement will be much larger than 3% points, and possibly 10% points, roughly putting Xbox global share to around 40-42%, rather than 34% (up from 31% of the previous gen). This is in line with the current shares ratio but it historically favors the playstation as we move on in time. However, it's a bit different this time, with the series s collecting the slacks and semi-casual gamers. It still is an unknown quantity, but I lean on the 40%+ global market share for the Xbox, still behind the Xbox 360 times but much better than the last generation.

b) Xbox will improve in all regions as I last predicted, though with a higher margin than before. Even better, thanks to the Series S, Xbox is likely to outsell the PS5 in the US by a considerable margin, expecting around 55% market share.

c) Total sales are also an unknown quantity at this stage, as this generation has not gone full throttle yet, as most games are cross-generational, and the last gen machines are still highly capable. My bet is that this generation will keep selling at a lower rate than the last one, though the generation may last longer.

Last edited by freedquaker - on 06 December 2022