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JWeinCom on 19 October 2020
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jason1637 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I'd be very surprised if he could still pull off getting that many voters. Keep in mind he got a lot of independents onto his camp, something that shouldn't be possible this time around. Pretty sure Biden will win the popular vote by over 8M this year unless he crashed just before the finish line.

I'm actually more interested what the other parties will get in terms of voters. I am pretty sure that the greens will have a slight uptick while the libertarian party going down a bit, but we'll see about those only after the election I guess. And Maine having changed to single transferrable vote in their voting system should give them more power in that state already, as a vote for them is no longer a vote that's as good as thrown away.

Well 2018 midterms showed that a lot of Trump support stayed abouy the same. Covid happened this year so that could have a big impact but Republicans still have a lot of anticipation so I expect him to be either down up to 1m or up 1m. I think Biden wins 5-6m and third parties down a bit.

I really don't know about that...

In the Senate, the Republicans picked up seats, but only 1/3 of the seats of are up for reelection in any midterm election, and they happened to be in red states. 

Meanwhile, in the Congress race, which is nation wide, democrats had 53% of the vote, compared to 45% for republicans. This was a huge swing from 2016, where they won by about 1%. You'd have to think some of that reflects on Trump's appeal.

jason1637 said:
EpicRandy said:

Forecast predicts a record turnout  of 150M+
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/2020-election-turnout/616640/
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/08/14/election-2020-a-once-in-a-century-massive-turnout/

so should be up by 11M+ overall at a minimum from 2020.

My guess is those vote will go towards Democrats heavily. 2016 already had somewhat of a galvanised republican voters base to vote for trump, but since then Trump has himself, for 4 years, made certain to galvinise democrats voters to go vote against him in 2020. 

I'll bet on a gap of 10M minimum of the popular vote in favor of Biden.

I'll also bet that most of the election night's "Surprises" if there is, will be at the benefice of democrats contrary to what happened in 2016.

 

I think the forecast will be wrong.

Why do you think that?