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JWeinCom on 19 October 2020
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Bofferbrauer2 said:
KManX89 said:

Trump's shown a comfortable and consistent enough lead in Texas and Ohio to where I could call those for him. Even though Biden COULD take them, it's something of an uphill battle, so just for argument's sake, I'd call Texas and Ohio for Trump.

However, a loss in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and all the rust belt states is not only possible, but VERY much in play according to all the data, so, barring some otherworldly rigging, I don't see any way Trump wins reelection.

Trump doesn't have the Independents, whites and elderly voters on his side QUITE like he did in 2016, or not at all in the case of Independents (who, as we all know, are very important in deciding the election), and he's getting destroyed nationally in the polls by an even bigger margin than Hillary in 2016, not to mention Democrats are destroying Republicans in early voting. Hardly surprising considering the pandemic that he helped worsen and the threat of stacking the courts and DebateGate alienating voters (on top of all the other shit he did to alienate voters, which I'd be typing until Christmas to list off every single one, lol).

tRump has so much going against him by every single metric-or just by being an all-around incompetent idiot-that I'd be genuinely shocked if he won this time around.

Trump has no consistent lead in Ohio. Case in point, Biden was leading for quite some time at RCP and 538, and Trump is only a fraction of a percent ahead right now.

As for Texas, it's true that Trump is leading there... but only by about 2%. And the thing is, but Obama and Hillary (schocking, I know) were beating their polling numbers in that state, so 2% is very narrow and not enough to guarantee a republican victory here. I'm not even sure that a winner will be declared there yet on election night.

In Texas, a winner might be called on election night. They start processing and tabulating ballots about 10-12 days in advance I think. Texas is big so there are logistical problems, but there's a chance it gets called.