| NobleTeam360 said: Feeling a lot more confident that Biden will win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Would be amazing if he wins Arizona and Florida as well but they aren't needed if he gets the three previously mentioned states (assuming he holds what Hilary won in 2016 as well). |
| NobleTeam360 said: Feeling a lot more confident that Biden will win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Would be amazing if he wins Arizona and Florida as well but they aren't needed if he gets the three previously mentioned states (assuming he holds what Hilary won in 2016 as well). |
Florida would be awesome since it might get called on election night. If Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina get called for Biden, he actually has a good chance of reaching 270 on election night with safe states included.
I'm still a little iffy in the midwest. It's less logical, and more to do with trauma from 2016. The data seems to show that Clinton actually didn't lose much support over the last couple of weeks, but undecided voters broke strongly in favor of Trump. That's less likely to happen this year, as fewer voters are undecided. The Trump campaign is trying to make Hunter Biden the Comey letter 2.0, but I just don't see it happening. Too much other shit going on, the matter has already been investigated, and unlike the email issue it didn't have much traction in the first place. And, again, even if so, it wasn't so much that the Comey letter convinced people to drop Hillary, it more got undecideds to vote for Trump. Polls have also adjusted since 2016, and it's hard to square the idea of the national polls showing such a huge shift without those states shifting one point.
But despite all of that, I'm still nervous.
I'm actually a bit more confident in Florida, since the polling there was accurate in 2016, and the civil unrest, particularly in Wisconsin, seems like a bit of an X-factor. Again, not logical necessarily, but just how I feel.
On a side note the long lines for voting piss me the fuck off.
Obviously, I don't begrudge anyone for exercising their right to vote. What upsets me is that this is a pandemic. Instead of complaining that the process for mail in voting was so terrible and shouldn't be trusted, the people in charge should have been making huge investments to make sure everyone could vote by mail and do so with confidence. If there were problems with mail in voting, which have not been demonstrated, they had months to solve them. Instead they did the exact opposite. Glad people are making sure they can cast their vote anyway, but it shouldn't have come to that.
