| GProgrammer said: Not going to happen, simple as that Its less than halfway to 150 million after 3.5 years Its had the perfect year this year with both of the current consoles about to be replaced and covid, which has been a boom for all things IT. Now both of these points helping the switch are about to go away, yet somehow switch sales will stay or even improve over the next 5 years Plus also Nintendo will release the switch successor within a couple of years The switch is doing better than I thought it would but 150 million is a near impossible mountain to climb |
I mean...that's not accurate.
No one said Switch sales will stay or even improve from this year. This year Switch could hit 28 million (or more), which would put it at what like 77+ million. Three more years of 28 million and then zero sales after that would put it at 161 million. So no, it doesn't need to sell as much or more, it just needs to continue doing very well and Nintendo needs to give it strong support through late in its lifecycle.
If they say replaced it end of 2024 and kept supporting it with good first party software and smart decisions like price cuts into 2024, a reasonable path to 150 million would be: 29mil/78mil 2020, 24mil/102mil 2021, 18mil/120mil 2022, 14mil/134mil 2023, 9mil/143mil 2024, 4mil/147mil 2025, 2mil/149mil 2026, 1mil/150mil 2027.
I don't think it will happen, 135-140 million feels much more likely, but it is possible, and the Switch successor is a long ways away it's just about first party support late into the lifecycle, continued increase in 3rd party support, game price cuts, new models, and hardware price cuts.
