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Machina said:

This is a great idea for a thread and poll right now. Hopefully it will be bumped at some point in the future, a few years from now approaching the end of next generation, and we can see how everyone's predictions fared.

For posterity's sake here's some current context:

  • We're almost exactly a month out from launch.
  • The launch line-up is weak, with the obvious big hitter of Halo Infinite having been delayed following negative reaction to its debut gameplay trailer. GamePass is being pushed instead of a traditional launch focus on new releases.
  • In terms of pre-orders it seems to be doing well, especially compared to the Xbox One's, but it's obviously some way behind the PS5.
  • Pricing is the same as PS5's core variant, although the entry-level version is cheaper.
  • Microsoft has just bought ZeniMax Media, and has therefore acquired Bethesda, id Software, Arkane Studios, MachinaGames, Tango Gameworks, ZeniMax Online Studios, and a couple of other smaller studios, as well as all of the aforementioned developers' IPs.
  • We don't yet know what approach Microsoft will take regarding the above studios' releases; whether future releases will be outright exclusive, timed exclusive, or will remain entirely multi-platform. Is it going to be another Minecraft, with a focus on ubiquity and revenue, or will Microsoft increasingly leverage exclusivity to increase market share? 

My prediction: probably right smack in-between Xbox 360 and Xbox One final sales, so around about 68 million.

Or 69



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