I will say 80-89 mil between the two.
The budget console of 299 usd is a great entry point into next gen, and overtime we may see people upgrading to the X as the generation goes on (essentially double dipping). MS is gaining a lot of positive press with their BC stances, gamepass, and generally pro consumer practices. I can see them reclaiming the US and UK with ease, especially if they keep their Bethesda IPs as brand exclusive.
However around 80 mil will be the ceiling here, as PS will still be ahead in Eu and Japan. Some people with capable PCs will also opt to play XBox games there as well, which will prevent console sales from going much further above that. On the flip side however, many consumers still prefer the convenience of consoles. This will cause many who would primarily only game on PS5 to at least get a series S if they have any interest in MS newly aquired IPs and studios, further adding to the total sales of the series S/X.








