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JWeinCom on 04 October 2020
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SanAndreasX said:
JWeinCom said:

I don't think Trump will leave before the 20th, and probably not after. I'm also not sure Pence would pardon him or that he could. I don't think that would be a good look for the Republican party. But maybe he'd be loyal enough. I gotta say, Trump seems like the kind of guy that is tolerated while he's in power. If the election is lost, Pence is probably going down with the ship and may not be apt to help him.

You can apply a pardon for a presumptive case, but it might depend on how likely a charges are to occur. More importantly though, a president can only pardon for federal crimes. If someone were to say bring a charge of negligent manslaughter in New Jersey, that would be a state crime.

Pence would probably pardon him under the excuse that hauling a president of contested popularity into court would create civil unrest. Nixon was still popular among conservatives when he resigned, and Ford thought the country wouldn't hold together too well with the added stress of watching a former president go to trial in federal court. And Trump's base would eat it up.

That said, with regards to your second point, prosecutors in the state of New York would no doubt like to get their claws into Trump. He likely is looking at some heavy charges in New York. But Trump would actually have to be in New York before they could arrest or try him there. Trump would flee to Florida the first chance he got, and I can see DeSantis refusing to extradite him to New York out of pure spite, selling his refusal to Floridians and other conservatives around the country as standing up to the tyranny of an out of control blue state,  and to return favors bestowed upon Florida by Trump (i.e. Trump protecting Florida from offshore drilling while doing everything he can to force his hated California to open its territory to drilling). 

Trump is popular among conservatives, but I think depending on the situation, the republicans might want to change that. Trump went hard to the far right. If Trump loses in a landslide, which doesn't look that unlikely, they will need to pivot back to the center. In that case Trump might be used as a scapegoat. I personally think that if the election goes badly, Trump will become a scapegoat for the whole party. Also, resigning solely for the purpose of getting a pardon is a bit different than Nixon. I'm not sure how that'd go constitutionally. There's also no clear precedent that Trump can't pardon himself. A literalist interpretation of the constitution would imply that he can do so. 

Whether or not Trump would actually agree to this, is questionable. He tends to think himself invincible till it's too late. See Covid.

As for suing him in NY, they'd probably be able to exercise jurisdiction. Trump's going to have to come to NY at some point to deal with some of the other actions and do some other stuff. We're getting pretty theoretical here, but that's an interesting scenario. 

Also, Team Edlegard forver.