If they lose $50 per system, and they gain $6 per digital game over physical game sold, and the attach rate is 10 games per console, and 50% of sales are digital regardless of console type, then Sony cannot make their money back. They would only get $30 back over the life of the console. There are some guesstimates in my math, but it should be in the general ballpark.
Also, let's say Sony does have a way to make the $50 back over 4-5 years. That's still a losing proposition because they had to put up $50 4-5 years earlier. Considering a 7 year console life cycle, I think they'd need to make about $125 additional over that 7 years to be worth the upfront investment of $50. And, there is essentially zero chance that they can pull $125 extra out of the average digital edition console owner.
On the other hand, people are also right to note that the math changes when the BOM changes down the road.
And, with all of that said, Sony certainly has better numbers available to do this math, and they determined that the diskless system made sense for them. They're more likely to be correct about their own business than any of us are.
Edited to fix multiple typos
Last edited by VAMatt - on 02 October 2020
