I can't imagine the market itself is smaller this next gen than it is now. A Switch Heavy might throw a bit of a wrinkle into the numbers, but I also can't imagine that will be powerful enough for the games. I won't predict numbers but I think the split will be closer to 60/40 than the 70/30 it is currently.
Edit:
For those wondering why I don't think the market will shrink (unless a sustained recession hits) is that I think the tablet/phone damage has mostly been done. Population and wealth growth should sustain and/or increase markets from here on out. The damage from streaming gaming will come in the future. We aren't quite there yet. What damage you may ask?
The market size in the Wii+X360+PS3+DS+PSP was 101.6+85.8+87.4+154.0+80.8 = ~509.6m units. Although not the final picture the current snapshot of the current market is WiiU+Switch+XBONE+PS4+3DS+PSVita is 13.6+64.8+48.3+113.4+75.8+15.9 = ~331.8m units. Even if 100m more units sell (mostly to the Switch) that is still about ~1/5 reduction in market size.
If you drop the Switch for the next gen (if you're one of _those_ people), then I would expect the Switch+XBOXS(S/X)+PS5 market size still be roughly ~350-400m units.
Last edited by dharh - on 29 September 2020A warrior keeps death on the mind from the moment of their first breath to the moment of their last.
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