Looking at the three month earning release, current forecast is 19 million (not sure if that's changed and it's not reflected there as I'm hearing others say 30 million). This means Switch will sell, on their forecast, it will be at 74.76 at the end of the fiscal year on 3/31/21. It would need to sell another 25.24 million to make the difference. Since this is in nine months, Switch will miss it.
Now, let's say Switch blows past that with 25 million sold in the fiscal year, which puts it at 80 million. It would need to sell another 20 million in 9 months. Possible, but again, the stars need to align.
There are two things that are going to get in the way of this
1)Recession - contrary to popular belief, there will not be a V-shaped recovery from COVID, so expect a recession down the road. It will be worse for Europe as many countries are (foolishly) doubling down on the lockdowns which will lead to further job loss and business closure. This could cut into Switch's sales. Nintendo will likely have to cut the price of the Switch by $50 at least
2)No games - Say what you will, but Switch is running on fumes right now. Animal Crossing, Pokemon and Mario All-Stars will take them through the holidays, but they need to get their shit together and get some games out. Monster Hunter Rise helps and will likely boost Switch sales in Japan, but Nintendo's titles are the ones that are going to drive hardware sales as they always do. They have to get titles out if they want the Switch to keep going. Outlook is grim right now on that front.
My prediction is it wont happen but they will reach it in 2022.
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