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JWeinCom on 27 September 2020
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Only one new set of polls today, but it's a big one.
Washingtonpost (rated A+) released a polls showing, under two different turnout models, a 6 or 10 point lead for Biden. 6 with third parties, 10 without it.

That's pretty substantial, and while some polls have showed that kind of a lead, none of them have been from sources this big. Also worth noting is that when third parties are incorporated, 99% of voters had picked a candidate. That's insane. This time last year around 10% of voters were still undecided. If this is accurate, then the race is less volatile, as voters would have to actually switch over. Maybe some Jorgenson voters could be swayed over, (third parties tend to fizzle as the election comes closer), but winning Biden voters over seems unlikely at this point.

Top rated pollsters are disagreeing though, not so much on the national level but on a state level. What is interesting is the difference between registered voter polls and likely voters polls. Some polls seem to be predicting that Trump will have significantly higher turnout that Biden. For instance, Monmouth's last poll of Florida has Biden at a 1% lead among registered voters but at a 4% deficit among likely voters. Wapo on the other hand has a 5% lead among registered voters and a 4% lead among likely voters. Marist shows a 1% lead for Trump among registered voters, but shows it even among likely voters.

Depending on how each candidate can do at getting their base out to the ballot box, or the mailbox as the case may be, can be the difference between a very close race, and a landslide victory. And... this is probably where money comes in.

In today's environment, I don't think money is going to change the minds of voters. If you put me in a room and showed me Trump ads for 24 straight hours, I would not vote for Trump. I'm sure most of his supporters would say the same in reverse. But, could ads convince someone who supported a candidate but not enough to get off of their ass to actually get off of their ass? Yeah. I think they could.

Bottom line though is that while those who follow politics have been saying for months the race would tighten up... that doesn't seem to be happening. And, the election isn't coming in a month, the election is happening right now, with ballots already being mailed in. If the race is actually this close on election day, then even assuming that the national results are as far off as 2016, Biden wins the national vote by 3 times more than Hillary does. It's hard to see that happening without the states Trump won by less than 1% flipping, which would lead to a loss.