You're right it's uncertain but with how poorly late gen games can run on consoles it makes me feel pessimistic about it. Control is a great example. It also depends on someone's standards since if by 2025-2027 the Series S is running games at 720p 30fps I'd consider that really poor performance but other people might not. It won't be $200 right away but it should get there by 2023-2024 and at that price it will be very attractive. Either way people should look at stuff like digital foundry videos before deciding if the Series S would be fine for them.
The 8th gen has arguably had arguably more stable frame rate than previous gens. Maybe because developers can make great looking games without sacrificing too much performance.
Control is an exception and was a poorly optimized. From my understanding it has improved greatly post launch, but I can't confirm how much better. Also, the game ran best on X1X I believe, partly because it has a considerably more capable CPU. Series S is avoiding that by having virtually the same capabilities there.
I will entertain the idea that Series S may get 720p content. You need to consider 720p in the 7th gen, 8th gen and 9th gen aren't equal. Post processing effects has changed over the years. 720p often didn't look as jagged on Xbox One, but could look blurry depending on the method implemented for performance sake. 9th gen consoles will likely utilize image reconstruction techniques, something Digital Foundry has touched on many times. For example, they showed Control at 540p could resemble 1080p with DLSS. So things are different now, a low native resolution may look surprisingly sharp with new tech.
I look forward to Digital Foundry examining Series S games. Thus far it appears Series S titles are gonna look and run great. Even Gears 5 maintained 120 fps seemingly with ease. Down the road I suspect Series S will hold up well even if compromises are apparent.
I assume Series S will do well given many consumers will simply notice it plays the latest games at a low price. But when it hits that sweet spot of $199, I imagine its gonna have some great holiday sales. The soonest that may happen is holiday 2022.
River City: Rival Showdown for 3DS (3/5) - River City: Tokyo Rumble for 3DS (4/5) - Zelda: BotW for Wii U (5/5) - Zelda: BotW for Switch (5/5) - Zelda: Link's Awakening for Switch (4/5) - Rage 2 for X1X (4/5) - Rage for 360 (3/5) - Streets of Rage 4 for X1/PC (4/5) - Gears 5 for X1X (5/5) - Mortal Kombat 11 for X1X (5/5) - Doom 64 for N64 (emulator) (3/5) - Crackdown 3 for X1S/X1X (4/5) - Infinity Blade III - for iPad 4 (3/5) - Infinity Blade II - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Infinity Blade - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Wolfenstein: The Old Blood for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Origins for X1 (3/5) - Uncharted: Lost Legacy for PS4 (4/5) - EA UFC 3 for X1 (4/5) - Doom for X1 (4/5) - Titanfall 2 for X1 (4/5) - Super Mario 3D World for Wii U (4/5) - South Park: The Stick of Truth for X1 BC (4/5) - Call of Duty: WWII for X1 (4/5) -Wolfenstein II for X1 - (4/5) - Dead or Alive: Dimensions for 3DS (4/5) - Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite for X1 (3/5) - Halo Wars 2 for X1/PC (4/5) - Halo Wars: DE for X1 (4/5) - Tekken 7 for X1 (4/5) - Injustice 2 for X1 (4/5) - Yakuza 5 for PS3 (3/5) - Battlefield 1 (Campaign) for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Syndicate for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: MW Remastered for X1 (4/5) - Donkey Kong Country Returns for 3DS (4/5) - Forza Horizon 3 for X1 (5/5)