By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
haxxiy on 11 September 2020
Edit Thread
Barozi said:
haxxiy said:

Positivity rates around 1% are irrelevant and interchangeable considering noise from false positives or sample contamination.

Besides, both Norway and Denmark now have higher cases per capita, and even in absolute cases, if we are talking about Denmark. So, who knows what winter will bring. It's a sprint, not a race. Not that I'm rooting for disaster, of course, but the trend seems clear all over Europe and that will have to be reckoned and dealt with, with all the expected impacts.

There was also this:

The now completely laughable model from the Imperial College for Sweden, that evidently way, way overshot both the IFR and percentage of infected people until the outbreak ends.

"Positivity rates around 1% are irrelevant and interchangeable considering noise from false positives or sample contamination."

That's not the point. The point is that it took ages for Sweden to get close to 1% while many many other countries have been around 1% for months.

"Besides, both Norway and Denmark now have higher cases per capita, and even in absolute cases, if we are talking about Denmark."

I'm not blindly going to believe the first part but I'm not in the mood to find their data. Let's just say even if it's true, it's probably not far off from Sweden's current numbers, so by your definition just statistical noise.

The second part of that statement however is just misleading at best and plain wrong at worst. Denmark currently has more confirmed cases because they are testing far far more people. ~45k daily tests (0.78% of the population) vs. 18k daily tests (0.18% of the population) (based on 126k tests last week).

That's roughly 4 times more tests per capita in Denmark compare to Sweden. You talk about confirmed cases while it's obvious that Sweden's true daily case count is quite a bit higher than Denmark's.

If they are testing less per capita, wouldn't their positivity rate by default be higher, then? Or do you believe they're just blindly stumbling into positives?

I understand you wouldn't be in the mood to research data that contradicts your point of view (it's all freely available in Our World In Data, by the way) but don't expect me, then, to accept your logical inference, without any study to back it up, that Sweden MUST have more cases just because you think so.

Here's something to think about:

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/germany-covid-19-cases-rise-as-schools-reopen/1941262

Vs.

https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-09-07-here-the-mass-tests-continue-on-campus.By7ssdTX4v.html

Last edited by haxxiy - on 11 September 2020