Latest polls are favorable for Biden. In particular two highly rated pollsters have him at +9 and +8 in Pennsylvania. If Biden wins in Penn. Trump's bath to victory is very narrow, requiring him to win basically all of the other states considered toss-ups, and even then it would be a one electoral vote victory. That being said, another high rated poll shows Biden ahead by 2 in Pennsylvania.
Fox News, which has a good track record for polling, despite what you may think about their news coverage, has Biden up in North Carolina and up by a wider margin in Arizona. North Carolina is actually favored for Biden now according to Fivethirtyeight. If those two states vote Biden, Trump would need to win 3/4 in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Wisconsin seems like it would be the most likely to flip due to recent unrest, but that hasn't seemed to sway voters in recent polling.
Good news for Trump is that Florida is getting closer. Losing Florida effectively ends any hope for reelection for Trump. A recent top pollster has the race at even among likely voters, with a slight Trump lead among registered voters (which is a bit strange in itself because republicans tend to do better among likely voters). Other polls have Biden still leading by a small margin.
Polls are consistently showing a practical dead heat in Texas which is very bad for Trump and the republican party in general. Losing Texas would be an existential crisis. If Texas votes Democrat it's almost certain that Arizona will as well due to similar demographic shifts. If this happens, Trump can win Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and still lose.
It's still unlikely Trump will lose Texas, but the important thing is that he has to spend money there. Biden has been outraising him, and being forced to defend states like Texas and Georgia (another typically red must win state that's almost a pure toss up) makes it hard to cut into the rust belt states where Biden has a bigger lead, and without getting at least one, and more likely two, of those, Trump is very unlikely to win.
As it stands, the situation is that Biden's lead is holding in the states he needs, and Trump's must win states are competitive. Polls would have to be waaaay further off than they were in 2016 for Trump to have a chance as the situation currently stands. He needs to shift the narrative, but that's really not happening. In the press, Trump is being forced to play defense. His comments about soldiers are not playing well. I think his comments about Covid may be even worse since he is actually on tape speaking about how dangerous the virus is in sharp contrast with his public comments downplaying the threat. Trump's position is similar to Hillary's in 2016 in that sense where issues like Benghazi and her emails were hammered in the final stretch of the election. But, unlike Hillary, Trump is already down.
The best hope now would be a Coronavirus vaccine, but it's not clear that Trump would get credit for that (nor should he really because I'm pretty sure anyone in the whitehouse would have funded vaccine research). But it will at least maybe shift the dominant issue in voter's minds and maybe then the law and order message will resonate.
If the story remains focused on Trump, then Biden will win. And that seems to be what's happening. Even on Fox News the current headlines are mostly damage control for Trump, with a few stories about Biden down lower. Considering the current situation, Trump needs to be on the offensive, and due to a combination of authors and media personalities releasing damaging stuff on Trump at right moment (both for their pocketbooks and for any political desires they may have) and Trump's generally bombastic personality, that's going to be hard.
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