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I think it is a near certainty that XB will sell better next gen than this gen. But, unless Sony screws up, or MS decides they want to win no matter the cost, it seems pretty unlikely that XB can outsell PS5.

MS has pockets so deep that they can easily outsell PS5 if they decide that's important to them. They could give the consoles away if they wanted to. They're not going to do that, of course. But, if they decide that they need an XB is 200 million houses for some reason, they certainly can make it happen by dropping the price to something insanely low .