July NPD 2020: Switch 340K, PS4 150K, XB1 17k (rip)

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Shadow1980 said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

This chart actually shows that COVID was not the only factor in boosting Switch sales  YoY.  Why?  Because in July the COVID bump is over.  PS4 and XB1 are down YoY, but Switch is still up YoY.  You are only using US numbers, but the story is similar worldwide.  COVID is clearly over in most countries, but Switch is still up YoY.  That boost is not due to COVID alone.

The PS4 & XBO are older systems with less general demand and fewer systems in the supply channel. The XBO was obviously completely sold out early enough in the month to where only 17k units got sold. The PS4 was down YoY in June & July, as was the XBO in June, but not by much, and certainly far less than most previous systems (including the PS3 & 360) were in the months prior to being replaced. By all accounts, the PS4 really should be doing worse than it currently is, and the residual effects of the COVID bump are likely what was keeping it at less than -20% YoY as opposed to a more typical -40% or so. Simply being down YoY doesn't necessarily by itself mean the COVID bump was over. By how much is important as well, especially given the circumstances. For example, here's the YoY changes in monthly sales for the PS4 & XBO so far this year versus those for the PS3 & 360 in 2013 in the U.S.:

There are other examples as well, including for Nintendo systems, but they almost all show much worse YoY drops by this point this close to replacement. The only one to really avoid this fate was the PS2, which had phenomenal legs closing in on and past replacement, only really starting to stall after the PS3 was reduced to $400.

That the month-to-month decline after April was overall slower for the Switch does not necessarily mean that AC was the primary driver of Switch sales for the April-July period. Again, other more plausible factors already exist that we have good evidence for, as outlined in the bullet points in my post from Saturday. Had there never been a pandemic this year and we still saw the Switch experience five straight months of sales improvements from AC, then there would be no question that it was the biggest system-seller of at least the past 20 years. But that's not the 2020 we live in, and I have to assess all these other factors.

As for the rest of the world, Japan shows that from April through July the Switch was averaging about where it was before AC was released. For the NPD-equivalent sales period of April-July, it averaged about 76k per week, comparable to October 2019 and Jan. & Feb. 2020, the only other NPD-equivalent sales periods after the Lite's release month but before AC. There was an improvement in July, however (also August so far, but Obon is a factor there), but in general the Switch has done far worse in Japan than in the U.S. for the April-July period.

While the Switch experienced a relatively gradual drop from month to month in the U.S., in Japan it dropped down to a baseline of sorts very quickly. Japan, unlike the U.S., didn't show any kind of "COVID bump" effect in its sales data over the spring (the PS4's only big boost to sales in Japan this year came from FF7 Remake). Here's how the U.S. & Japan stack up over the past 19 months (note that the NPD-equivalent sales periods for Japan are offset by one day, as NPD months end on Saturdays while the sales weeks for Japanese trackers end on Sundays; it shouldn't make any real difference, though):

As for Europe, do we really even have reliable monthly/weekly sales figures for region? Supposedly they exist, and apparently some people have access to GfK/Chart Track HW sales figures, but I haven't seen any of it posted online.

1)  I need to clarify this.  I am only arguing that Switch would be up YoY even without COVID.  I know everyone else is arguing about the lasting sales effects of Animal Crossing, so you might confuse their points with mine.  Before you stated that you expected Switch to be down this year without COVID.  That is the point I am disagreeing with.  Even without COVID, Switch sales were always going to be up this year compared to 2019. 

2)  XB1 and PS4 sales are both down in July.  XB1 sales drop is extreme.  Do you think COVID is still helping it at this point?  PS4 released a major title in July, Ghosts of Tsushima, and an even bigger title in June, TLoU2.  Its sales are still down YoY in July.  Two major titles back to back and sales are still down YoY in July.  Do you really think COVID is helping the PS4 at this point?  Even if it is, surely the effect is fairly small at this point.

Meanwhile Switch sales are massively up YoY.  It's not just a little boost even into the second half of the year.  Switch is up 86% YoY, worldwide, just for weeks 27-34.  Just counting sales for the 2nd half of the year, Switch sales are still massively up YoY.
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020-week-34/1/

At this point saying COVID is the only cause of the boost is absurd.  PS4 is still down YoY in July even with 2 major games back to back.  Meanwhile Switch is not only up YoY, but massively up.  An 86% YoY increase is not small, and the COVID quarantine is over in many places.  Why only use US numbers when it's clear that the COVID effects should be diminished everywhere else?  And yet Switch is still selling like mad everywhere.

This all goes back to curl-6's comment that you are still underestimating the Switch.  Your analysis at this point seems full of confirmation bias.  Every success is going to be explained away as COVID related.  The main way that people avoid confirmation bias is that they tell themselves beforehand, "if X happens, then I was wrong and I need to change my analysis"?  Do you have any criteria like this?  What is it going to take for you to recognize that Switch is a major (greater than PS4) sales phenomenon?  You need to have some criterion or you are going to keep falling into confirmation bias.