Would've still hinged on games like Final Fantasy coming to Nintendo.
I still think the cartridges were a good decision gameplay-wise. The CD tech wasn't really there yet, they were fragile and there were huge load times. The instant respond times and robustness of the cartridges were a godsend. If it's also true that certain things wouldn't have been possible without the cartridges, that makes it even worse; imagine if Mario 64, Ocarina of Time and GoldenEye sucked.