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TWRoO on 29 June 2008
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NJ5 said:
TWRoO said:

While this works out close to correct (luck?), your working is wrong.

You are adding monthly production numbers to a previous shipment figure, the two different numbers can not be mixed easily.

We can (like I have done before) make estimates about the time it takes from produced to shipped, which I think is about 5-6 weeks.
If we assume that the jump to 2.4 million produced starts on the 1st July, then the shipments won't catch up until 6 weeks later, so it's more like 4.5 months at 2.4 million, and 7.5 months at 1.8 million.
Of course this gets messed up when they do things like air shipping in December.

I think perhaps it is easier to take consoles away from the target at the end of the fiscal year.

So 24.45 million (shipped end of March) + 25 million (projected shipment for this fiscal year) = 49.45 million.

The 3 months Jan-March of 2009 will all be at 2.4 million production. So we should take away 7.2 million from the 49.45. However again factor in air shipments, if Nintendo do it by a similar percentage as last year then that moves almost 2 million from 2009 back into 2008.

Therefore shipments at the end of 2008 would be 45.25 million.

Like I said, it worked out pretty much the same number, it's just that your way of working it out is flawed.

 

 

It's not flawed, the only assumption I made was that a unit which is manufactured at the end of the year gets shipped immediately. There are small details like airshipping which could make the final estimate better, but they were not important enough for me to care.

The point was to show that the final number will be so much above 40 million that 40 million (shipped or sold) is a given. That's why I made that assumption.

PS: I don't see the importance of shipping delays in the middle of the year when we're talking about year-end figures. The only thing which I'd correct if I wanted a better estimate would be to account for airshipping at the end of the year.

 

Well yes that is what I meant.... those produced at the end of the year are not shipped till the new year. This means everything is shifted back...  the only reason  it came back to being almost the same number is because of my vague estimate of air shipping.

Put it this way, if there was no air shipping and it always took 6 weeks for consoles to be shipped, then there was 6 weeks worth of production that you missed at the start of the year. And you added 6 weeks worth onto the end.

The first 6 weeks worth would have been about 2.7 million (1.5 months at 1.8mil/month)
The last 6 weeks worth would have been about 3.6 million (1.5 months at 2.4mil/month)

None of this is very accurate because production isn't going to suddenly jump in July, so I agree your point stands, it is highly unlikely The Wii will sell fewer than 40 million... but if things had not been so complex, or if the production increase was even larger then it could have thrown it off a lot when you calculate it like you did.