Its actually not even an NDA, I just want to keep getting info so its best not to violate the trust of my sources.
In terms of strategy I think we can expect three things from Microsoft:
1) Wii imitation in some way (imitation is the sincerest form of flattery).
2) Price drop to ~$230/$300/$400 in the USA
3) Announcements intended to make Xbox 360 content competitive in continental Europe with Wii & PS3 and Japan, and more profitable in the Americas.
I have some info on number one and number three, number two is based on the K-Mart circular leak that showed somek ind of 360-price drop.
But the ways things look right now, Sony & Nintendo are just more inventive. Microsoft has become known for games like Gears of War, but what they need are lots of games like popular franchises in genres where 360 is weak (Final Fantasy), more abstract stuff (Little Big Planet, Pikmin, Zack & Wiki), and exclusive blockbusters that don't fit the racing/shooting/western rpg mold (Banjo Kazooie could do it, but it takes more than one).
My hunch is Xbox 360 gets to 40-50 million worldwide, sometime around when Obama is running for his second term, but after this year the rest of the Xbox 360 base will come from price drops rather than 'content additions' which make the 360 seem worth it. Most people who want it as their primary system will have bought it by the end of this year. I think thats one of the secrets to Wii actually - in terms of technology - it is over priced hardware, but alot of the exclusive software is so unique that it doesn't 'feel' over priced at all if you like the content. PS3 is sort of in between, the content makes it easier to justify the price with time, but its similar enough to Xbox 360 and different enough from Wii to limit the upside compared to PS2/DS/Wii.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
