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haxxiy on 26 August 2020
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IcaroRibeiro said:
haxxiy said:

Boa Vista had 25% seropositivity months ago, so I'd assume this 8% is at least five times underreported, even though it's probably the highest anywhere in the world for PCR tests.

By the way, today we have results from Maranhao from over 3,000 random blood samples, showing the state at 40,4% seropositivity:

https://jornaldebrasilia.com.br/brasil/incidencia-de-covid-19-no-maranhao-chega-a-404-a-maior-taxa-do-brasil/

I'd assume most states from the North and Northeast, and Rio, have similar numbers.

Pernambuco estimated numbers  according to some frameworks are from 600 to 800 thousand cases, roughly 5-7 times the reported numbers. I don't think we can get herd immunity with only 10% contamination rate though, so here the odds of a new outbreak (less deadly than the first of course) are strong

There's little chance a state like Pernambuco is anywhere as low as just 5 - 7 times undercounted, specially considering it has made the lowest number of tests relative to its population among all states. Unless, of course, they're just that accurate on determining who's infected, and that it is way more deadlier there than anywhere else in the country.

https://www.folhape.com.br/noticias/em-dados-gerais-pernambuco-e-o-estado-brasileiro-que-menos-testa-para/151749/

It might not be, say, 40%, but whenever the number of deaths approaches 0.1% of the population, it seems like there is a decent slowdown, and Pernambuco is sort of almost there. So I wouldn't be too concerned ATM.