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With MS and Sony probably bringing Wii-mote knock off's to the market soon, I very much doubt Nintendo will leave themselves in a situation of understocked shelves this autumn/Christmas.

They could get away with it when there was no equivalent products available, but would lose more than just a Wii sale when someone leaves with a 360/PS3 (they lose eventual software sales...)

Having said that, there should be far more than enough stock available to reach 40+ million by Dec 31.