| Barkley said: Mario Kart 8 DX + AC:NH definitley. BOTW and SSBU... possible but I'm not convinced yet. Everything else that is currently released won't make 30m. We'll have to see if any future titles can reach that success. |
I'd say Smash is almost guaranteed at this point. Only ten million to go, doing over 1 million per non-holiday quarter. Presumably ~3.5 years until Switch is replaced. It's not gonna have a sequel cut off legs. And it will keep selling for the rest of Switch's life as one of the two premier multiplayer/party games on the system. I think Smash could go as high as 35 million - 15 million more sales with presumably roughly 15 quarters to go until Switch is replaced, give or take a couple quarters.
BotW is less assured, as we will have to see what effect BotW2 has on the original's sales. But it too is still doing over 1 million a quarter, and while I expect that to fall, it still could be over 30 million by late 2023.
