It's going to be close. I'd like to know what kind of games are coming for the rest of the FY before I say "yea" or "nay". I do think it has a very good shot at breaking 30m for the FY because they are most likely to have supply problems in Q3, but they can make that up during Q4. For this same reason I think you are putting too much emphasis on Q3 on your Quarter by Quarter breakdown though.
If they do actually make 30m, then it would have to look more like this:
Q1, 5.68m (already happened)
Q2, 6.82m - They seriously ramp up shipments, because they are still short supplied in several areas, especially Japan.
Q3, 11.5m - Even with this amount they end up short supplied during the holidays
Q4, 6m - Restock from holidays + BOTW2 release
I know Q1 was a high amount, but I think to ship 30m Q2 will need to be even higher. Switch has been in short supply in several places and Nintendo is ramping up production, so it is definitely possible for Q2 to beat Q1. However if it doesn't then to me that indicates that the demand for Switch is more limited than we thought. They need the high demand and momentum to continue into the holiday quarter. If there is a lull in Q2, then I don't think 30m is possible.Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 15 August 2020