No less than 4 retail games, I think more might happen though.
Nintendo wont go in to the holidays with Pikmin 3 and and Cadence as their go-to games. I also expect the mario collection to drop late next month and I dont believe 3D world happens this year, probably early next.
But BD2 could be a december game and that leaves room for a November game. And I honestly have no idea what it could be.