Is there a possibility that the Nintendo Switch will be the best-selling console?

[Urko]

There is a chance, but it is not likely.

To sum up, here a list of past and future factors to influence the final result:
- Quarentines: there are more to come.
- Economic crysis: there is one to come, for sure.
- Nintendo creating good quality software for the console.
- PS5/XSX at a different, higher, entry price.
- Is the Ring-Fit 2 going to be even more successful than the first one?
- ... the Monster Hunter issue.
- The presence of Nintendo (Mario) in the olympic games of Tokyo 2021; how much?

So in the past we have seen Switch selling a lot due to quarentines in all the regions of the world. This is obvious because people look for a device to entertain themselfs and to calm down the children. Specially, for the parents it is more convenient to buy from Nintendo, because it is tendentially more children friendly.

The economical crysis to come should also statistically benefit the cheapest console option, rather than the more expensive new PS5/XSX. Furthermore, Nintendo could reduce the price, they definitely have a margin for it, while Microsoft and Sony not until... 2022?

Thirdly, how much longer is Nintendo going to support the Switch before releasing the successor? And during this time how many games is Nintendo going to release per year? This year 2020 is a disaster (unless they come up with something unexpected before the end of the year). Nintendos games are still great, but one would expect to have more of them, and to be more evenly spreaded throughout the year.

2020 and probably 2021, will be very good years for the Switch whatever it happens. On the other hand, to get to the 140M sold, Nintendo will also need 2022 and 2023 to be very good years, and that is the difficult thing. So I would say:
+ If the global crysis hits hard.
+ If there are still quarentine-like (recommendations for the children to go out less on certain periods) things in parts of the world on 2022 due to the third, fourth waves and mutations of the virus
+ If there is a Ring Fit 2 that is even better than Ring Fit 1 and attracts more casual people
+ If Nintendo creates MORE good games per year and spreads them evenly
+ If the console goes down in price before the public has lost the interest in it
+ If there is a new Monster Hunter in the console, or alternatively a Dragon Quest
+ If PS5 and XSX have a tough start of the generation (for whatever the reason: price or public not finding them appealing for the lack of exclusive games)
++ If he presence of Nintendo (Mario) is huge during the Olympic games, renewing the interest of the people in the console at such late stage of the consoles lifecycle

Well THEN, only then and just MAYBE, we could be thinking about crossing the 140M mark... and NDS sold 154M.