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SvennoJ on 02 August 2020
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JRPGfan said:

I agree with everything you said.


Except maybe this part:

"As in silly news, UK is pondering to close pubs so schools can re-open. (With the hope to keep overall Rt close to 1.0 I suppose). Are teachers in the UK all going to the pub after school lol."

as I understand it, their logic is both things contribute to the Rt.
So if you remove one, Rt drops, while schools will increase Rt, thus hopefully you get some form of equalisation.
(ei. its better than keeping both pubs + schools open at the same time)

Its a trade off sort of thing.
I dont think thats silly at all, it just means they view kids at schools as more important than pubs and their impact on the economy.


"Yet up to 30 into a class room for 6 hours will be fine..."

It doomed to cause mass spread.
Its gonna be worse in places were the spread is already high.
It'll increase the chances of 1 kid infecting the entire school, and those same kids bringing it back to their parents.

We're about to see alot of countries have dramatic rises in daily cases.


"Belgium, The Netherland and Denmark and Ireland (although still pretty small numbers) also look very steep for the past week. Even Norway is climbing again. The effect of the re-openings is really starting to show now and it's still the holiday period :/ "

We're testing more than before, but that doesnt account for all the new cases.
Still the amount of people hospitalised is still dropping or flat (18 ppl).

We have 3 people in the ICU (in our entire country, of about 5,8m ppl).

Yes its abit of a worry... but until the amount of people hospitalised starts going up, I dont think any drastic messures will be taken.

Yep, I see the logic, trading one for the other. However it's on a different scale.

11.7 million kids in school in the UK, which is mandatory while going to the pub is at your own choice. Also the time spend in schools is generally much longer than in a pub. The number of pubs and schools is actually not that different in the UK (33K vs 47K pubs), however many more people attend schools than pubs.

Rt is already above 1 in the UK the way things are now, so trading one thing for another that's worse isn't going to help. Plus most of those people that like to frequent pubs will find another place to go.


The rising trends are mostly caused by younger people spreading the infection. They need less hospitalizations and also go undetected more, yet still spread the infection. At some point it reaches critical mass and starts spilling over to the older population, that's when you'll see hospitalizations go up again. So waiting for that to happen is doomed to create problems. Early detection is to be able to respond quickly, yet it seems countries continue to take a wait and see approach until the mild cases spill over to those more at risk. Especially with school re-openings looming, an already lower average age of infections is a worrying trend.

What I fear is countries all over the world setting themselves up for big secondary waves in the fall. Creating the perfect storm for this virus to pick up again.