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JRPGfan on 02 August 2020
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SvennoJ said:
JRPGfan said:

Whats unfortunate is that testing in japan is unlikely to catch very many of these cases and they still found 1,500+ a day (on a weekend).

Japan has only tested ~6,500 people pr 1m population.
(in denmark that number is ~265,000, ei. we've tested like 41 times more pr population than japan has)

Its very likely that therse a high number of infected walking around in japan (more than other places), that they just dont know about, because testing is so low there.

Japan needs to do something fast. Last week they were on a 1.068x daily increase factor, +58% 7 day increase, doubling time of 10 days. It's where you need to go in total lock down to reverse the growth.

Belgium, The Netherland and Denmark and Ireland (although still pretty small numbers) also look very steep for the past week. Even Norway is climbing again. The effect of the re-openings is really starting to show now and it's still the holiday period :/

As in silly news, UK is pondering to close pubs so schools can re-open. (With the hope to keep overall Rt close to 1.0 I suppose). Are teachers in the UK all going to the pub after school lol.

You should also wonder why stores limit capacity, time inside and require face masks while schools can re-open at full capacity for the entire day... Class room size stores here have a limit of 7 people inside, usually by appointment and preferred curb-side pickup. Yet up to 30 into a class room for 6 hours will be fine...

I agree with everything you said.


Except maybe this part:

"As in silly news, UK is pondering to close pubs so schools can re-open. (With the hope to keep overall Rt close to 1.0 I suppose). Are teachers in the UK all going to the pub after school lol."

as I understand it, their logic is both things contribute to the Rt.
So if you remove one, Rt drops, while schools will increase Rt, thus hopefully you get some form of equalisation.
(ei. its better than keeping both pubs + schools open at the same time)

Its a trade off sort of thing.
I dont think thats silly at all, it just means they view kids at schools as more important than pubs and their impact on the economy.


"Yet up to 30 into a class room for 6 hours will be fine..."

It doomed to cause mass spread.
Its gonna be worse in places were the spread is already high.
It'll increase the chances of 1 kid infecting the entire school, and those same kids bringing it back to their parents.

We're about to see alot of countries have dramatic rises in daily cases.


"Belgium, The Netherland and Denmark and Ireland (although still pretty small numbers) also look very steep for the past week. Even Norway is climbing again. The effect of the re-openings is really starting to show now and it's still the holiday period :/ "

We're testing more than before, but that doesnt account for all the new cases.
Still the amount of people hospitalised is still dropping or flat (18 ppl).

We have 3 people in the ICU (in our entire country, of about 5,8m ppl).

Yes its abit of a worry... but until the amount of people hospitalised starts going up, I dont think any drastic messures will be taken.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 02 August 2020