If I had to make an estimate right now, I'd say they'll show Hellblade II gameplay at E3 2021, and plan release for mid-late 2022.
Everyone is giving Xbox flak for lack of gameplay now, but E3 2021 will be the most important event of this gen, just like the E3 2014 hype storm basically carried PS4 through this gen.
Halo Infinite is meant to have Xbox hit the ground running, but it's having a few hiccups. It still makes sense for MS to focus on getting that ready and showcasing it, as it'll be that and most likely Forza Horizon 5 later as the year one titles for the system.
Even though they haven't done a great job showcasing 'next-gen' yet, I'm glad they're at least prioritising games that'll be playable in the near future.
I'm guessing there won't be a normal VGAs show this year due to the pandemic, but if they do an online version instead, maybe there's hope we could see it there, as it was revealed at last year's VGAs. But yeah, E3 2021 is a distinct probability, annoying though it would be to have to wait that long.
Being a UE5 game not held back by the Xbone, it should be a great showcase for the hardware which would help their current problem of boasting about power but not having anything that really justifies it.
Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.