Switch is most likely going to sell over 100M and Series X got good chances of selling at least 40M, that said, i will go whit a big "NO". To reach 50% market share Ps5 would need something like 140-150M, perhaps more, and this is just too much.
PS2 was a monster in sales and i can't see any other console doing similar numbers.
Prediction: In 5 years Nintendo will Lauch a "Core Mario game" very similar to Astro Bot. That said, many will Ignore Astro Bot existence and say Nintendo created this concept.