Pssh, not even. This assumes you buy everything day 1 and new. My backlog keeps me busy until the latest games drop in price. Typically spend closer to $30 on retail games and up to $40 for the limited release kind of stuff. But you also have to consider that at the end I'll have something to show for it. Any kind of digital service means you need to keep paying or lose it all. That kind of plan doesn't work for me. Smart shopping means physical is cheaper in the long run and I won't be held hostage to needing an internet connection to play anything. I don't have a PC nor have to share a TV. And since I kept all my old games it's not like I need to repurchase them through a digital BC service.
Well 3rd party games, the big ones especially, come out months after launch onto GP so it’s a similar situation. However I have the luxury of playing Xbox first party day 1 where you would have to wait or bite the bullet and pay in full if the hype is too much.
It’s not either or, as in I can buy the games before they leave the service. 1st party games don’t leave at all. I can easily have the option to buy and collect what I see fit.
I respect your position but all I have to do is beat 3 full priced games to break even. Everything after that is a bonus. Last year I played 20 games on GP, it’s essentially legal theft with the money I saved. I dunno given that it’s hard to see it in any sort of negative light.