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SvennoJ on 21 July 2020
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JRPGfan said:

Saw this gem, and thought I'd share:

USA:
45 Days from 1 million to 2 million cases
28 days to go from 2 to 3 million cases
15 days from 3 to 4 million cases

At the current trajectory it's close to halving the window each time, it's foreseeable that it could reach 5 million cases by Wednesday next week.

^ What do you guys think? can that actually be right? 1 million more in the next week? Exponential growth is a scary facking thing.

The growth has actually been slowing down a bit in the USA. It topped at +45% week over week growth, yet the last 3 days it's down to +6% week over week growth. Still growing in many places. The good thing about exponential growth is that it scares people into taking action.

Assuming this weekend was not exceptionally low in reporting and the trend continues, USA will add about half a million cases in the next week, or 650K to next Wednesday. Reported deaths will still keep growing for at least a week, likely two, catching up to the reported cases.

Of course as soon as people see the numbers stop increasing, they might go back to their usual business...


And umm yeah, the slow down in growth could be test constrained as well :/