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SvennoJ on 20 July 2020
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haxxiy said:
EnricoPallazzo said:
Man, Brazil just doesnt get better. Still more than 100 death per day, around 50 thousand new infections. Will surely hit 100+ thousand deaths.
At least summer is coming in the south hemisphere so it should improve after september.

It's a continental sized country with many different sociocultural realities depending on the location. You have anything from cities with herd immunity to others where almost no one has caught it. The places that were hit first are now improving rapidly, while others that locked down before any meaningful outbreak (like where I live...) are seeing large number of cases.

Regardless, the AZ vaccine will roll out by the end of the year to at-risk populations and healthcare professionals. So, one way or another, it's more than halfway through already.

Will we hit the more than 300,000 estimated deaths from the 1918 Flu? I don't think so.

Italy's death toll peaked on April 2nd, yet the total reported deaths still increased by a factor 2.5 until now.
Brazil sits at 80K reported deaths and has not peaked yet, but the reported cases do seem to have peaked.
So bar under counted deaths, 200K for the first wave is likely.

I don't think its more than halfway through already, the first wave maybe. But a readily available vaccine that works for all likely won't be until next year. What cities have herd immunity?



There is progress
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/astrazeneca-s-eagerly-awaited-covid-vaccine-passes-large-test-but-confirmation-needed

It’s broadly good news: The trial of the vaccine, known as AZD1222 and being developed by AstraZeneca and scientists at the University of Oxford, was generally safe (fevers and headaches hit the majority but could be controlled), and it saw both antibody and T-cell immune responses.

Whether this is enough to create a strong and lasting immunity against SARS-CoV-02, the virus causing COVID-19, remains the bigger question, and longer-term follow-up trials will be needed to confirm this (and are ongoing).

The median age was 35, much younger than the group which will need it most, i.e., those over 70, and the majority of those getting the AZ vaccine had aches, headaches, fever and fatigue, though there doesn’t appear to be anything more serious. These were generally controlled with paracetamol.

It was tested on 1077 healthy adults aged 18 to 55. It seems to be working.