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only777 said:

.. how much rides on the Xbox Games Showcase on the 23rd.

Not a single thing about the Showcase will determine MS's future other than a possible new game trailer that will go completely under the radar at reveal yet go on to sell 20m and become a system seller (like that Rocket League x Fortnite game on PS5).

Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!