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IcaroRibeiro said:
Seems like pokemon isn't selling more than 200k in the rest of the year

It makes me wonder how much the franchise is dependent of Christmas gift effect compared to other Nintendo IPs

Pokemon are always released on Christmas season or at least very close to it and its first quarter sales are always mindblowing, but their catalog sales are weaker compared to other Nintendo IPs

Curious to see how a Pokemon game would perform if it was released in March like Animal Crossing. How much weaker would be the first quarter and how better would be it's legs in the next quarters

I wouldn't make a judgment on this yet, due to your own reasoning. Out of the current games, Pokemon would be the third best selling game during December for sure. Its still a very popular Christmas gift and there is DLC planned instead of a 3rd version. It doesn't have the potential to sell as much as New Horizon or Ring Fit Adventure but it will easily surpass 200K during December alone. The game will probably finish higher than Smash did last year or Splatoon 2 did in 2018. 

  • 2018 Splatoon 2 - 1.122.324
  • 2019 Smash Ultimate - 1.092.397

Historically Pokemon games haven't done well in their second holiday season because Pokemon Company always releases the 3rd version. This time their marketing would be focused around an expansion around November and December. This will revive interest in the game and make it a popular Christmas gift alongside New Horizon.

My guestestimate would be at least 1.25M for the year.