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JWeinCom on 16 July 2020
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Random_Matt said:
Gamers who cannot sleep at night clinging to the idea of sales, sales and sales. Strange behaviour, seriously strange.

I know... it's like yesterday I went to an NFL forum and all they were talking about was football.  Seriously strange.

tbone51 said:
JWeinCom said:
There is simply no guarantee that Switch will follow a similar curve to the PS4.

The main thing is first party support. With the Switch and DS, they continued to perform really well until Nintendo's first party support began to dry up. Once that happened, they coasted for a little while on the strength of evergreen titles before dropping sharply.

Doesn't seem like Nintendo is going to slow down Switch support in the next couple of years, but with Nintendo's future lineup a giant ?, it's hard to make a solid prediction for the Switch. BOTW2 is the only huge title we know about (with Bayonetta 3, New Snap, and Prime 3 being relatively big franchises that have the potential to become bigger on Switch). If you have faith that Nintendo has a good lineup lying in wait, then 110m is a very safe bet, but if they don't, it may limp past 100m.

There are plenty of things to consider here though, these evergreens are unlike any other Nintendo games seen before. They won’t drop, going by shipments and sell thru of japan it does seem like it’ll go even past when NSW stop selling.

but that’s minor talk here, as for games there are plenty that are mid sizes to also being huge. 1 game that could be half of what AC is is Tomodachi Collection. The rumored Mario 3D collection game as well as many possibilities for Zelda anniversary next year. 100mil is practically guaranteed if NSW peaks this year. You can literally cut in half YoY after this one (22mil-24mil) and it’s hitting 100mil, 110mil is the worse case and that’s if everything goes wrong ;P

If it had a 25% drop next year, and 33% the next, and a 50% the next (which would not be inconsistent with other sales, I had the numbers up but my compute ate the post) it'd limp to about 103-106 million.  So that's around the baseline.

I would definitely guess that it should exceed that, if for no other reason than Nintendo not having to support an extra system this time around (if Nintendo didn't launch the 3DS in 2011, I can imagine the Wii receiving more support in its later years), so 110 million seems like a reasonable baseline.

But, this is Nintendo we're talking about. A company that could seemingly do no wrong with the DS and the Wii, then managed to do nearly everything wrong with the Wii U. I would not be shocked to see the Switch hit 150 million.  At the same time I wouldn't be shocked if it managed to fall short of 100.