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Keep in mind PS4 has a huge advantage in FY1, as it released in Nov (5months) and NSW released in March (1month).
Im using this to prove a point to those that think NSW will have sharp declines in the future and those who think NSW won’t surpass 110mil or hell even 100mil.
Anyways to begin, NSW First 3 years (4FY) is extremely strong and one of the fastest selling hardware period. Even with the odds, peaking most likely in its 4th year (FY5) the question on everyone’s mind is how much the system will drop off/decline in the coming years. Ps4 is the best thing for comparison as wii literally decline so hard at the end and the DS is the DS.
lets begin....
>>> FACT <<<
PS4 / NSW
FY1 7.50mil / 2.74mil
FY2 14.80mil / 15.05mil
FY3 17.70mil / 16.95mil
FY4 20.00mil / 21.03mil
Tot: 60mil vs 55.77mil
PS4 is up but only counting By FY align, quarter align NSW is up slightly despite Holiday advantage ps4 got.
Next Up PS4 has a very strong FY5 with a decline of only 5%. Strong FY6/FY7 with another roughly 5% and 20% declines YoY respectively.
FY5 19.00mil
FY6 17.80mil
FY7 13.60mil
FY8 should be somewhere between 7mil-10mil but that’s yet to be seen.
NoW back to the main topic at hand, The NSW!!
nsw is pulling DS/Wii numbers, the system is currently peaking with FY5 set to do estimate of between 23mil-27mil. But for the example let’s go with 24mil
Worse case scenario imo is hard declines, no aggressive push from Nintendo, next gen system affects NSW, and just overall lack luster Software output (lol). Let’s see where this goes...
FY5 24.00mil (79.77mil)
30% YoY drop
FY6 16.80mil (96.57mil)
40% YoY drop
FY7 10.00mil (106.57mil) *Successor comes out
50% YoY drop
FY8 5.00mil (111.50mil)
again how the hell is NSW going To do under 110mil? Pls help me understand this!!!
post your crazy thoughts!
