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It all depends on Sony strategy for ps4 post ps5 launch. If they do like what they did with ps2, by heavily discounting it and focusing on emergent markets in wich most of the population don't have enough purchasing power to get a PS5 and keeping games prices in check to match this reality, since most of them will be catalogue anyway, they can easily sell 140 m ps4s and switch will not reach this number because Nintendo really doesn't invest in emerging markets and probably will make a Switch sucessor in the next 3 years or so.

If Sony do with ps4 like they did with ps3, just discontinuing it as fast as possible to focus on ps5, it can sell 10~12 million units still, and maybe the switch will catch up