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SvennoJ on 04 July 2020
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JRPGfan said:
jason1637 said:
I feel like US death rates haven't increased to what it was cause people are getting hospitalized at a much lower rate than before. Hospitalizations have been increasing but right now were at mid to late May levels of hospilaztion. It would probably take April levels of hospilaztion for deaths to spike.

It can take like 2-3 weeks for people to "die" to this virus.
So thats "June 13th to June 20th",  ei the people who are dying now, are mostly from before the "spike" of infections kicked off in the USA.

Give it 2-3 weeks and numbers should climb to reflect the 50k+ cases pr day.
If 19-22k daily cases from 2-3 weeks ago gives 600-700 deaths today.
Then 50k+ daily cases should in 2-3 weeks give 1400-1600 deaths pr day at some point.

The only positive is their saying that more of the confirmed cases are a younger demographics.
So maybe it doesn't rise nearly as much as that. It depends on when the younger gen, pass it onto their parents/grand parents.


"I feel like US death rates haven't increased to what it was"

Thats because daily cases used to be 40-45k at its peak in the USA.
Also back then, they didnt have any medicines to give, or know how to treat the virus. So naturally the people dieing was higher.

The deaths today (due to covid19) are from weeks ago, from before the effects of ending lockdowns resulted in spread increasing.
Thats why we say "death lags".

This virus doesnt kill you instantly.
Its not like  you go get tested, find out you have it, and instantly die.
Its a slow process, of you loseing a drawn out battle to it, potentially lasting like 3 weeks.

Yep dying quickly is a rarity, avg time to death is 18.5 days after symptoms onset which is avg 4.5 days after getting infected. Then there's a delay in reporting after confirming it was covid-19. It can take far longer as well and even pulling through eventually doesn't mean its over

76 year old, on a ventilator for a month, she was in hospital for another seven weeks, and had to re-learn how to walk.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/i-had-to-fight-covid-19-sends-ontario-woman-on-87-day-battle-for-survival-1.5009124


And you're left with damaged lungs :(

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/broadway-actor-nick-cordero-may-need-double-lung-transplant-after-covid-19-battle/507-1ca51c09-373e-43ce-8dfa-aa7766822edf


Women in her 20's...
https://globalnews.ca/news/7066642/coronavirus-lung-transplant-damage/
https://www.nm.org/healthbeat/medical-advances/covid-19-advances-in-care/double-lung-transplant-saves-patient-after-covid-19
That was what was left of one of her lungs...


Anyway, we'll see in 3 weeks what the CFR is for today's 50K+ daily cases. Testing is also improved nowadays compared to the previous peak, the percentage of missed cases should be lower nowadays thus also a lower CFR. Together with better treatment options and lower average age of newly infected the amount of reported deaths per day hopefully won't go back up to 2200.

Atm USA is a bit under 600 a day, same level as Mexico. Brazil is just over 1,000 a day, India passed the 400 a day.
For reference, Italy peaked at 813 7-day avg, Spain 866, UK 943, USA 2255.