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mZuzek said:

You won't find me making predictions very often, but here it is. My first sales prediction thread.

I just got a bad vibe coming from these two. Both of these consoles I think look quite unappealing for the general consumer and are waaay too big. The Xbox One had these issues to an extent, but not this bad - and it already was mostly a failure outside the US. Furthermore, it feels like more and more games are coming to PC, with a lot of PS4 exclusives getting ported over to the PC at some point, and Xbox basically giving up on the idea of exclusivity as a whole. Sure, Sony will ensure their games take a while before the ports happen, but I think many people are gonna decide to skip consoles if they know they can get their games on PC later - especially since most people don't buy consoles early to begin with.

Consoles are getting to a point now where they're not even trying to hide the fact that they're just glorified PCs anymore. Their designs look way too much like what you'd find on gaming PC stores, almost like they're trying to appeal to that market more than console gamers, and even the size of the things isn't too much smaller than some desktops out there. But of course, the PC audience isn't exactly there for the taking.

Then there's the issue of pricing. We don't really have official numbers on these, but I think most people expect these consoles to ship at $500 at launch, which is... pretty steep. I think consoles need to have at least some casual appeal in order to be a success, but between the design, size, price, and lack of exclusivity, I don't see where the general audience interest will pick up. Besides, I get the feeling that nowadays most people don't care about crazy graphics anyway.

If I gotta put it in numbers, let's see...

35 million lifetime Xbox Series X
80 million lifetime PS5

Now I just gotta get ready for some crow.

I gotta disagree with the 80 million figure for PS5 though cannot speculate on the XB5 sales right now. No Playstation console has ever sold this low, not even the PS3 under fierce competition from X360 and the shadow of the Juggernaut WII. Heck I don't even know how it will compare to the PS4 at this stage as there are too many unknowns but I am pretty sure that it will sell more than PS3, which was released 13 years ago for $500. Even if the PS5 is released for the same price now, it will feel much cheaper due to the increases in inflation and nominal increase.

However, my gut feeling says that they will struggle to sell as much as the combined sales of PS4 and XB1 due to various reasons such as,

a) High nominal price
b) Diminishing returns (graphically the gap between this and next-gen is much smaller)
c) Global economic crisis
d) Japanese console regression
e) Competition from mobile, Switch and PCs
etc...

So, while the combined sales from PS5 and XBSX is likely to be less than PS4 and XB1, PS5 is unlikely to sell less than PS3. XBSX will definitely sell more than og Xbox but less than half of PS5.  It also depends on the time frame. So in 7 years...

PS5 will sell between 85 and 120 million
XBSX will sell between 30 and 60 million

I know those are very rough and preliminary estimates according to my feeling, so to speak. :) But check my prediction history, they almost always come true!



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates