Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[SvennoJ]

JRPGfan said:

Flordia had 8,942 daily cases yesterday.... and today its currently over +9,585 new cases.

Anyone wanna make bets (guess) where florida is a week from now?
Do they take drastic meassures to stop spread? does it just keep going up?
Will we see 15-20,000 new daily cases in flordia a week from now?

Comparing Florida this week to the week before they are averaging a 1.11x daily growth factor.
(40,119 last 7 days, 19267 the 7 days before, 208% week over week change, 1.110x increase per day)
Averaged throughout last week a corrected curve would go about from 4100 to 7669 daily cases for the 20th to the 26th

1.11x daily growth Predicted vs Observed

6/20 4100  4639
6/21 4551  2761
6/22 5052  3825
6/23 5607  5461
6/24 6224  4966
6/25 6909  8831
6/26 7669  9636
6/27 8513
6/28 9449
6/29 10488
6/30 11642
7/01 12923
7/02 14344
7/03 15922
7/04 17674

Yep on the 15 to 20 thousand new cases if all stays the same.

33 states are now on the rise
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 27 June 2020